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Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Nigeria puts oil benchmark at $57 per barrel, sees budget of N13.8 trln for 2022

Nigeria may base its revenue projection from oil at $57 per barrel and production output at 1.88 million barrels per day, according to the reversed Medium Term Expenditure Framework released by the ministry of finance and budget on Thursday.

Just as the country projects to spend a total of N13.86 trillion for the 2022 fiscal year compared with N10.52 projection for the 2021 fiscal year.

The country based its revenue projection from oil at $40 per barrel and production output at 1.86 million barrels per day for the 2021 fiscal year.

The minister of finance and budget, Zainab Ahmed in a proposed MTEF presented at a consultative forum on Thursday said the country plans to grow the economy by 4.20 percent in 2022 compared to a projection of 2.50 percent for fiscal 2021.

Ahmed put the projection on inflation at 13 percent versus 15 percent this year and exchange rate at N410.15 to the dollar for 2022, same as fiscal 2021.

RELATED: Nigeria’s oil revenue falls to N1.5 trl in May vs N2.2 trl projection ~Finmin

Nigeria’s inflation currently stood at 17.93 percent, after it peaked at 18.17 percent in March.

“The realities of 2021 portend sustained OPEC Supply Cuts, ongoing vaccination, and rebounding Global GDP led by Emerging Economies.
“In consultation with NNPC & other stakeholders, our base oil price scenario in the Medium Term is (2022: $57/bbl, 2023: $57/bbl, 2024: $55/bbl) and this is premised on the averages of leading forecasting institutions, factors affecting market fundamentals, global economic recovery, plans by governments and market sentiments,” Ahmed wrote in the presentation.

She said; “although Nigeria’s total production capacity is 2.5 mbpd, current (year to date) crude production is about 1.4mbpd (slightly short of the OPEC+ production quota), and an additional 300,000bpd of condensates, totaling about 1.7mbpd.

“The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that global oil production will increase to match rising levels of global oil consumption.

“World Bank forecasts that crude oil prices will rise gradually from an average of US$60 pb in 2022 to $61 pb in 2023, and US$61.9 pb in 2024,” she said.

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