The Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris has significantly closed the gap between Republican rival Donald Trump among suburban residents and middle-income households, a pivotal shift as the 2024 election approaches, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll analysis.
This comes after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July, opening the door for Harris to take the lead in these influential voter groups.
Suburban voters, a key demographic that makes up about half of the U.S. electorate, have shifted toward Harris, with the Democratic candidate now leading Trump 47% to 41% in polling conducted throughout September and October.
This represents a notable nine-point swing from earlier polls in June and July, where Trump led Biden 43% to 40% before Biden’s exit from the race.
Similarly, Harris has pulled ahead among voters in middle-income households, those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 annually. Trump, who once led this group 44% to 37%, now trails Harris 45% to 43%.
This shift mirrors Harris’ growing appeal, as she positions herself as a champion for the middle class.
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Despite Harris’ gains, the race remains tight, with national polling showing a marginal 3-point lead for Harris over Trump, 46% to 43%.
Voters consistently cite the economy as their top concern, with Trump maintaining a lead in this area. In an October poll, 46% of voters viewed Trump as the stronger candidate on economic issues, compared to 38% for Harris.
However, Harris has made headway in areas like democracy and political extremism, where she is more frequently favoured over Trump.
Her focus on affordability and middle-class growth has resonated with voters, according to political analyst David Wasserman, who attributes her success in part to growing optimism among suburban and middle-income voters.
The final outcome of the race will likely depend on the results in battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, where polls indicate a close contest.
Despite national trends, the ability to win over key middle-income and suburban voters, particularly in these swing states, could prove decisive in the November election.
