Global economic recovery hangs on severity of Covid-19 2nd wave and vaccines availability
Analysts at the United Capital Plc in this review on the prevailing Covid-19 second wave spread suggested that global economic recovery in 2021 hangs on the balance between the severity of the infection and the availability of vaccines.
2020 showed that full economic recovery would prove to be impossible without a vaccine.
At the onset of the coronavirus outbreak, some governments had mulled the idea that herd immunity would be the preferred strategy to avoid a total shutdown of global economies.
That strategy proved to be disastrous as the UK, one of the countries that championed this idea, became the epicentre of the pandemic in Western Europe.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, Pfizer and BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca, in collaboration with Oxford University, announced effective vaccines for Covid-19.
According to scientists, about 70 percent of the population must be vaccinated for vaccine-induced herd immunity to be effective.
As such, the speed of approval by government regulators and the massive deployment of vaccines to ensure that they reach the poorest parts of the world would be critical.
This position is extremely important within the context of the 2nd wave of coronavirus infections in many advanced economies, as well as some emerging and frontier markets.
For instance, aside from the US and most of Europe, which are already dealing with the 2nd wave of infections, Nigeria, S/Africa, Pakistan, Israel, S/Korea amongst others have confirmed a worrying level of new cases, suggesting a second wave.
As such, we believe that Covid-19 remains a major threat in 2021, albeit with a brighter outlook in light of vaccine developments.
Accordingly, we are of the view that global recovery in 2021 hangs on the balance between the severity of the 2nd or 3rd wave of infections and the speed and efficacy of vaccination.